This comes from the recent Gibraltar tournament. White had carefully positioned a checker on Red’s 9-py so some fours would play awkwardly. This double four was Red’s worst nightmare.
Should he try one of Dirk Schiemann’s ugly plays and move 6/2(2), 5/1(2), or bite the bullet with 13/9(4)*?
The ugly play is just too ugly. Red will never get his seven outer board checker home without leaving multiple shots and so 13/9(4)* it must be.
On White’s sixteen missing numbers Red will stand reasonably well while, if he is hit, he still has an escape hatch via White’s 9-pt. And, of course, White will fan with nine numbers, giving Red some much needed breathing space. Note also that Red wins a gammon 15% of the time after the correct move.
As you can see from the rollout it is not close. Any play other than 13/9(4)* is at least a double blunder. This position is an extreme case of paying now versus paying later. I regret I don't have a note of what was actually played but it wasn't 13/9(4)*.
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