White’s 33-pip lead in the race and five-point home board are very significant factors. For money this would be a borderline redouble, and White would have a trivial take.
The match score changes things because if Red wins a 4-cube he will reach the Crawford Game which is very powerful. Red has priming and blitzing possibilities and the position is very volatile so Red must double now. Not redoubling is a bad blunder, as you can see from the rollout.
White still has a very comfortable take although you will get a few drops here because Red’s position looks more threatening than it is.
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