2024 - Position 99

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Match Play. Red trails 2-3 to 7. How should Red play 11?

Red need’s White’s full prime to crack. Therefore hitting must be wrong and it will also lose more gammons.

Red wants to build a prime from his 9-pt thorugh to his 4-pt. There are two moves that bear consideration: bar/24, 8/7(3) and bar/24, 12/11, 8/7(2).

The latter is riskier and loses more gammon but it also wins more games. From an equity perspective the two plays are identical so either move is correct. Note that four points win the match for White or alternatively get Red to Crawford so gammons are valuable to both players.

For money, bar/24, 8/7(3) would be correct as it reduces Red’s gammon losses.