XGID=--A-BCBa----cD--A--ccb-cB-:1:1:1:53:0:2:0:5:10
Match Play. 0-2 to 5. How should Red play 53?
Perhaps surprisingly 16/8 is a blunder because it cedes total outfield control to White, and the play doesn’t make the 2-pt.
At an even score 16/11, 5/2 is correct. At this score there is no equity difference between 16/11, 5/2 and 13/8, 5/2. White will hardly ever redouble at this score so Red can play more boldly. 13/8, 5/2 wins a few more games and loses a few more gammons than 16/11, 5/2 but the score justifies the play.
This is not an easy problem, but the key is to avoid the minimum shots play of 16/8. You must play to the demands of the position.
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