2021 - Position 75

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Unlimited Games. Should Red redouble? If redoubled, should White take?

This is a very volatile position, and the next exchange of rolls could swing the game one way or the other.

If Red wins it will very likely be a gammon. In fact, 75% of his wins will be gammons.

On the other side of the coin Red is only just favourite to escape his rear checker and White is just favourite to enter next turn. So about 25% of the time Red won’t escape and White will enter which will give him a strong position and a potential redouble to 8 in the near future.

White will win from here about 40% of the time and a fifth of his wins will be gammons.

All of this adds up to a redouble for Red and an easy take for White. Not doubling is a bad error but dropping the redouble would be a triple blunder.

This is not an easy problem, and you need experience of similar positions to aid your evaluation. A beginner would struggle here and even some experts might go awry.