2020 - Position 88

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Match Play. Red trails 4-5 to 7. How should Red play 54?

Because of the strength of White’s home board this is a close call. The safe plays, 16/12, 13/8 and 13/4, are perfectly reasonable.

Very slightly better is hitting on the 3-pt to deny White that point and this is best done with 13/9, 8/3* but 16/12, 8/3* is also fine. It turns that this is one of those positions where half a dozen plays are very close to each other in equity.