2109 - Position 122
By Chris Bray, Jul 5 2019 09:20AM
Money Play. How should Red play 44?
For once making the 5-pt is not the right play – that leaves the rear checkers stranded.
There are two plans. One is to make the 9-pt and the 20-pt with 24/20, 13/9(3). The other idea is to advance the rear checkers with 24/16, 20/16, 13/9. This keeps the checkers well connected but gives up on making the 9-pt immediately.
It turns out that both plans are fine and the equity difference between the two plays Is tiny. The key is not to blindly make the 5-pt just because you can. It turns out that making the 5-pt is a blunder which somewhat surprised me.
To counter a backgame one must first build a block in front of white's points. I think making the 9pt is more effective than the 5pt (making the 5pt doesn't block much). So, 13/9(2). 24/20 looks clear for the 3rd 4. The last 4 is a choice between immediately breaking the anchor or bringing a 3rd checker down from the mid-point. I prefer keeping the anchor to mitigate against a white joker , thus 13/9 it is.
I like Leo's play & for the same reasons as he outlines. 24/20; 13/9(3).