• 2019 - Position 5 (Corrected Solution)

    XGID=-b-aBBB-B-A-aD---bbc--bBb-:0:0:1:00:5:4:0:7:10

    Match Play. Red leads 5-4 to 7. Should Red double? If doubled, should White take?

    For money, this would be double and a huge drop. White’s structure is terrible and his lead in the race does not give him nearly sufficient compensation.

    The common strategy at 2-away vs 3-away is to play on for an undoubled gammon but here Red has a lot to do to achieve that and much can still go wrong. So, should he play on for the gammon or double?

    He should double and give White a tricky decision. White needs 25% game-winning chances to take (gammons don’t count, of course). In fact, White has just slightly more than 25% game-winning chances and so he has a skinny take but it’s no bargain.

    4 Comments

    • 1. Jan 8 2019 7:51PM by Peder

      ND/T. Why should Red throw away both his lead and his gammon chances?

    • 2. Jan 8 2019 9:15PM by Leo

      Agree with Peder. ND/T. At this score, I don't think red is quite strong enough to offer a double.

    • 3. Jan 9 2019 6:29PM by Leo

      Chris, are you sure about this analysis?XG gives this as a clear double (fair enough - I didn't see that)and also a take.

    • 4. Jan 10 2019 5:43PM by Peder

      If Red can win a gammon 30% of the time (not unreasonable) it will give a MWC of 76% in case of no double.

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