• 2017 - Position 184

    XGID=-DbCa-----------aa-cbbab-A:0:0:1:00:3:5:0:7:10

    Match Play. Red trails 3-5 to 7. Should Red double? If doubled should White take?

    This is very difficult.

    As noted in the comments most of the time you have to assume that Red will be closed out although occasionally Red will win a gammon, When he is closed out the game will be about 50-50.

    The problem with doubling is that it puts the match on the line (always beware the cube that gives your opponent the match exactly).

    It is very close because of those occasional gammons but Red does better to hold the cube here and wait for an opportunity to use it more efficiently later. Of course if you think your opponent is nervous enough to drop because of the gammon threat then that is different altogether.

    1 Comment

    • 1. Oct 12 2017 10:40AM by Alastair Woods

      with 7 checkers off and closed out red would be around the 39% winning mark. You have to assume he will get closed out most of the time here, so his winning chances are maybe somewhere between the 39% and less than 50%. So an underdog for the win but his equity in losing the extra point is not as great at this score and with any hint of a gammon, a double should be considered. Clearly with rolls such as 3-5, 3-6, or 1-6 plus a big double and various other scrambling home routes - there are gammons here. Hard to say how many....could be a double not sure!

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